The World Bank forecasts that economic growth in Nigeria would edge up to at least 2.5 percent in 2018, as the country benefits from improved commodity prices, investments and trade. According to the World Bank’s January 2018 Global Economic Prospect report launched on Tuesday in Washington DC, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2019 and 2020. The World Bank forecast that global economic growth will go up to 3.1 percent in the year 2018.
According to the bank, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue to rise to 3.2 percent in 2018 and to 3.5 percent in 2019, on the back of firming commodity prices and gradually strengthening domestic demand.
However, the report showed that growth would remain below pre-crisis averages, partly reflecting a struggle in larger economies to boost private investment.
“South Africa is forecast to tick up to 1.1 percent growth in 2018 from 0.8 percent in 2017. The recovery is expected to solidify, as improving business sentiment supports a modest rise in investment.”
“However, policy uncertainty was likely to remain and could slow needed structural reforms”.
“Nigeria is anticipated to accelerate to a 2.5 percent rate this year from one percent growth in the year just ended. An upward revision to Nigeria’s forecast is based on the expectation that oil production will continue to recover and that reforms will lift non-oil sector growth.”
“Growth in Angola is expected to increase to 1.6 percent in 2018, as a successful political transition improves the possibility of reforms that ameliorate the business environment,” it stated.
According to the report, Côte d’Ivoire is forecast to expand by 7.2 percent in 2018, Senegal by 6.9 percent; Ethiopia by 8.2 percent, Tanzania by 6.8 percent, and Kenya by 5.5 percent as inflation eases.
The World Bank said that the regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa was subject to external and domestic risks. It showed that any unexpected activity in the United States and Euro Zone could have a negative impact on the region.
Also, an abrupt slowdown in China could generate adverse spillovers to the region through lower-than-expected commodity prices.
“On the domestic front, excessive external borrowing without forward-looking budget management could worsen debt dynamics and hurt growth in many countries.’‘
“A steeper-than-anticipated tightening of global financing conditions could also lead to a rev deter investment in some countries.”
“Rising government debt levels highlight the importance of fiscal adjustment to contain fiscal deficits and maintain financial stability.”
“Structural policies including education, health, labour market, governance, and business climate reforms could help bolster potential growth,’ersal in capital flows to the region. Protracted political and policy uncertainty could further hurt confidence and’ it stated.
The World Bank called on policymakers around the world to focus on human investments to increase their countries’ productivity, and move closer to the goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.