The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has disclosed that the Federal Government recorded a major revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year, realising only N10.7tn against a projected N40.8tn. Edun made the revelation on Tuesday while appearing before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026-2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper.
He recalled that the N40.8tn revenue target was set to finance the N54.9tn 2025 "budget of restoration," aimed at stabilising the economy and laying the groundwork for long-term growth. However, he said fiscal performance now indicates that revenues would fall significantly short, largely due to weak oil and gas earnings, including Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax, as well as underperformance across several revenue lines.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7tn compared to the N40.8tn projection,” Edun told lawmakers.
The admission contrasts sharply with President Bola Tinubu’s September declaration that the government had already met its revenue target. “Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year, and we met it in August,” the President had said at the time.
Edun acknowledged that the revenue gap hampered implementation of the 2025 budget, noting that even with N14.1tn raised through borrowing, total inflows were insufficient to fully fund planned expenditures. Nevertheless, he said the government continued to meet key obligations through prudent treasury management, adding that salaries, statutory transfers and debt servicing were paid as and when due through “skillful, imaginative and creative handling” of available resources.
He warned against rigid expenditure plans tied to volatile oil revenues, stressing the need for flexibility. “We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” Edun said.
Also speaking, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through wide consultations, while acknowledging internal debates over revenue assumptions. He disclosed that although oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day was retained as a policy target, a more cautious benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day was adopted for revenue projections, as lawmakers urged a more realistic approach to budgeting.
