The federal government has implemented robust policies in an attempt to build Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, thereby creating the groundwork for a future that is more resilient and investor-friendly. Two years into the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector continues to navigate longstanding challenges. From modest gains in crude oil production to policy efforts aimed at revitalising local refining and attracting investment, the sector has seen a mix of progress and persisting hurdles. At the heart of the government’s reforms is the Renewed Hope agenda, a blueprint that seeks to boost production, deepen local participation, and enhance transparency across the petroleum value chain.
Production recovery is underway
Upon assuming office in May 2023, one of President Tinubu’s first major policy decisions was the removal of the petrol subsidy—an action aimed at deregulating the downstream sector and freeing up public finances for broader development.
The move, although met with immediate economic impacts, was hailed by global financial institutions as a bold step toward fiscal sustainability. Tinubu inherited a sector in distress. Crude oil production, Nigeria’s economic lifeblood, was struggling to meet OPEC quotas. Oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and chronic underinvestment had driven production to historic lows.
The President’s campaign manifesto, the ‘Renewed Hope Action Plan’, promised a turnaround: increasing crude oil production to 2.6 million barrels per day by 2027 and four mbpd by 2030. Since then, the administration has taken steps to stabilise oil production.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, crude oil and condensate output averaged 1.56 million barrels per day in 2024—an improvement from the 2023 average of 1.47 million bpd but below the 2024 budget benchmark of 1.78 million bpd. This trajectory suggests a slow but steady recovery. Although the highest monthly production in 2024, 1.69 mbpd, was still below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring how far Nigeria has fallen.
In total, Nigeria managed to produce 566.8 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2024. In the first four months of 2025, Nigeria produced approximately 200.87 million barrels of crude oil and condensates, compared to the projected 247.2 million barrels based on the budget target. This shortfall of about 46.4 million barrels has resulted in an estimated revenue loss of $3 bn, assuming an average Brent crude price of $65 per barrel
For a country with the capacity to do much more, this marginal increase cannot be celebrated as a breakthrough. It is, at best, a tepid recovery in the face of a national emergency. But all hope is not lost. The Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bashir Ojulari, has told President Bola Tinubu that the company is targeting 1.9 million barrels per day of crude oil production by the end of the year.
The target was contained in a statement by the Special Adviser to the President (Information & Strategy), Bayo Onanuga, on May 22, 2025, during the inauguration of the NNPC Limited Board at the State House on Thursday in Abuja. Ojulari, who resumed his appointment on April 2, 2025, after the sacking of former GCEO Mele Kyari, a decision described as a positive one for the industry, was quoted as saying the NNPCL team had already met with industry stakeholders to review operations and business relationships and that crude oil production is on course to hit 1.9 million barrels per day.
He stressed, “Production had risen to 1.7 million barrels in two months from 1.5 million barrels, with the target of reaching 1.9 million barrels by year-end.” A mid-term report document (MAY 2023 – MAY 2025) that details industry achievement shows that while the Ministry of Petroleum Resources has made some progress, most of the key targets set under Tinubu’s Renewed Hope campaign manifesto have not been fully achieved.
The report outlines goals such as raising crude oil production to three million barrels per day, completing major gas infrastructure projects, increasing gas supply for power, industry, and homes, and boosting the local production of petroleum products like petrol, diesel, kerosene, and aviation fuel. While there have been steps in the right direction, the ministry has yet to deliver on many of its core promises.