Britain has so far avoided medicine shortages linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, but industry leaders warn that rising freight costs are putting increasing pressure on drug supply chains. The trade body Medicines UK cautioned that while supplies remain stable for now, the situation could deteriorate if disruptions persist.
Chief Executive Mark Samuels said the country is “one step away” from potential shortages, noting that existing stockpiles are only a short-term safeguard. He warned that continued instability could quickly erode this buffer and expose vulnerabilities in the system.
Generic drug manufacturers, which supply the majority of medicines used by the NHS by volume, are already grappling with higher transportation costs and shipping disruptions. These pressures are particularly acute for low-cost medicines, where profit margins are already minimal.
“If the conflict continues for the longer term, then I think manufacturers will cease being able to absorb the costs, and then we'll either have some price rises for the NHS or we'll have a failure to supply. Probably a mixture of both,” Samuels told Reuters in an interview late on Thursday.
Off-patent medicines are especially vulnerable because, unlike patented drugs, they offer little flexibility to absorb rising logistics costs. With around 55% of generic medicines in Britain priced at under one pound for a month’s supply, transport expenses now represent a significant share of overall costs, raising the risk of some products becoming unprofitable.
The warning comes as earlier reports indicated that the conflict has already disrupted the flow of critical medicines into Gulf countries, affecting supply routes for cancer treatments and other temperature-sensitive drugs. Companies have been forced to reroute shipments and explore overland alternatives.
Biosimilar medicines face even greater exposure due to their complex production processes and longer lead times. Medicines UK, which represents manufacturers responsible for about 85% of NHS prescriptions, said sustained cost pressures could ultimately result in higher prices, supply shortfalls, or both.
