Nigeria's downstream petroleum market is facing renewed turbulence after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its ex-depot price of petrol to N1,275 per litre, up from N1,200. The increase has triggered fresh warnings from marketers that pump prices could climb as high as N1,500 per litre in the near term. The adjustment comes amid broader uncertainty in the global oil market, where fears of a supply glut are growing even as Nigeria moves to reprice its crude. The development is unfolding alongside internal tensions within OPEC, following the planned exit of the United Arab Emirates from the cartel in May 2026.
Data from Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited, cited by S&P, indicates that Nigeria has increased the average price of its crude oil by $6.15 per barrel for May deliveries across its 37 grades. The move reflects an effort to capitalise on stronger margins amid tightening supply conditions.
Official Selling Prices show notable increases in premiums over Dated Brent. Bonny Light rose to $6.86 per barrel, while Forcados climbed to $8.49. Antan Blend recorded one of the steepest increases, reaching a premium of $9.33 per barrel, underscoring rising demand for Nigeria’s light, sweet crude.
Analysts say the pricing strategy signals confidence in the competitiveness of Nigerian crude, particularly in European and Asian markets seeking alternatives to heavier or sanctioned oil. However, they warn that higher premiums could make Nigerian cargoes less attractive if global supply expands and benchmark prices soften.
The uncertainty is being compounded by structural shifts within OPEC, which consultancy Wood Mackenzie described as the most significant rupture in the group’s history. The firm noted that the UAE’s departure could weaken supply discipline over time, potentially reshaping global oil dynamics.
Although immediate supply disruptions remain limited due to geopolitical tensions, including constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, analysts say the longer-term implications are more consequential. A looser supply regime could exert downward pressure on prices even as producers seek higher revenues.
Within Nigeria, the pricing adjustments present a delicate balancing act. While higher crude prices boost export earnings, they also risk feeding into domestic fuel costs, particularly as refiners adjust to rising feedstock expenses.
Reflecting these pressures, the Dangote refinery also increased its coastal price to N1,215 per litre. The change coincided with a temporary suspension of sales following a halt in Proforma Invoice issuance, disrupting product loading and affecting the distribution of petrol and diesel across the supply chain.
Industry operators say the disruption has created uncertainty across depots, forcing marketers to recalculate landing costs. With Brent crude trading at $119.3 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $107.2, rising global prices are already feeding into domestic costs. Reacting to the development, the President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Ibrahim Maigandu, attributed the increase to global market forces, while PETROAN President Dr Billy Gillis-Harry warned: “We won’t be surprised if the price hikes beyond the 1,500 limit.”
