A study has shown that global crash in children being born due to falling fertility rate will have extensive adverse impact on many societies. The study, published in the Lancet projects that global fertility rate will fall below 1.7 by year 2100 as against 2.4 in 2017.
According to the researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, falling fertility rates mean almost every country could have decreasing populations by the end of the century.
They expect that the number of people on the planet will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
The number of children giving birth to by an average woman today is falling as opposed to those of former centuries. In 1950, women were having an average of 4 to 7 children in their lifetime. But it is commonplace to see most women now settling for between 2 to 4 kids. This is not caused by sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead, it is being driven by many factors including but not limited to, greater access to contraception, more women pursue careers and education, rising cost of good education and leading parents to choosing a fewer number of children they can properly carter for.
Although this may be perceived as a positive thing and great for the environment which could result to reduced carbon emissions as well as deforestation for farmland, the downside, however, will be the inverted age structure (more old people than young people) and all the uniformly negative consequences of an inverted age structure.
Researcher Prof Christopher Murray, who remains pessimistic about the projection said it will have a "jaw-dropping," effect on the world.
"It will create enormous social change. It makes me worried because I have an eight-year-old daughter and I wonder what the world will be like." Prof Murray added.
"Who pays tax in a massively aged world? who pays for healthcare for the elderly? who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?
The population of Japan is projected to decline from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to below 53 million by the end of the century. Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population fall from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. These are two of 23 countries, which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand, and South Korea, expected to see their population reduce by more than halve.
China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is projected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years, before falling by half the number to 732 million in 2063, declining further to 71 million by 2100.
Credit: BBC
